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Leonard Mlodinow

The Drunkard's Walk

People have great problems in understanding randomness - we tend to invent patterns when there aren't any. In The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives Leonard Mlodinow explains many of our misconceptions

Mlodinow gives lots of examples of how people have got it wrong when dealing with probabilities. You may have come across some of them before - the Monty Hall problem is a classic one - but you're likely to find some which you haven't seen before. I don't think that he get's everything right though. He claims that a lottery in 1920's New York which used the last 5 digits of the US treasury balance could have been gamed by someone who knew Benford's law - sorry I don't buy that.

The book goes on to describe some of the history of probability and statistics - the lives of Cardano, Pascal, and the Reverend Thomas Bayes. Mlodinow also looks at how statistics became important in running our lives, and at what can go wrong when we try to measure something.

I would say that the final chapter is the most important one of the book. Here Mlodinow argues that understanding randomness isn't just about obscure puzzles - its central to what happens in our lives. Analysis made with hindsight may just be trying to make sense of random events - but people believe it, and it may well become self fulfilling. It's an important message, in a book which is enjoyable and easy to read.

Note: This book is on the shortlist for the 2009 Royal Society Prize for Science Books

Amazon.com info

Paperback 272 pages
ISBN: 0307275175
Salesrank: 2984
Weight:0.5 lbs

Published: 2009 Vintage

Amazon price $10.20

Marketplace:New from $7.49:Used from $5.76

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Amazon.co.uk info

Hardcover 272 pages
ISBN: 0713999225
Salesrank: 203301
Weight:1.19 lbs

Published: 2008 Allen Lane

Marketplace:New from £18.99:Used from £14.99

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Amazon.ca info

Paperback 272 pages
ISBN: 0307275175
Salesrank: 11892
Weight:0.5 lbs

Published: 2009 Vintage

Amazon price CDN$ 12.64

Marketplace:New from CDN$ 6.26:Used from CDN$ 6.09

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Product Description
With the born storyteller's command of narrative and imaginative approach, Leonard Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how our lives are profoundly informed by chance and randomness and how everything from wine ratings and corporate success to school grades and political polls are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives us the tools we need to make more informed decisions. From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow's intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

Product Description

With the born storyteller's command of narrative and imaginative approach, Leonard Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how our lives are profoundly informed by chance and randomness and how everything from wine ratings and corporate success to school grades and political polls are less reliable than we believe.

By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives us the tools we need to make more informed decisions. From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow's intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

Fascinating insights. *****
Wonderful review of the concepts. Loved the story used to illustrate reversion to the mean and how we misinterpret data.

Fascinating insights. *****

Wonderful review of the concepts. Loved the story used to illustrate reversion to the mean and how we misinterpret data.

Entertaining and Educational *****
This book provides an enterntaining and educational account of the history of probability and statistics. Filled with anecdotes and explanations, it is a fun read.

Entertaining and Educational *****

This book provides an enterntaining and educational account of the history of probability and statistics. Filled with anecdotes and explanations, it is a fun read.

outstanding... ****
blown away by this book...but, do we cause randomness? i usually read spiritual books so, i have to see the connection of all things...check out Live Like A Fruit Fly - also on amazon

outstanding... ****

blown away by this book...but, do we cause randomness? i usually read spiritual books so, i have to see the connection of all things...check out Live Like A Fruit Fly - also on amazon

Great examples! *****
I teach psychology courses at a university and use several examples from this book to illustrate differences between how the brain/computers determine things. I've also cited this book in an article I've published. It's a fascinating read that is accessible to a wide variety of audiences, but doesn't dumb things down to the point that they lose their meaning. Highly recommended!

Great examples! *****

I teach psychology courses at a university and use several examples from this book to illustrate differences between how the brain/computers determine things. I've also cited this book in an article I've published. It's a fascinating read that is accessible to a wide variety of audiences, but doesn't dumb things down to the point that they lose their meaning. Highly recommended!

How to see that "cruel fate" is an oxymoron ****
Humans are so skilled at pattern-seeking, and so taken with the notion of actively-managed destinies, that they regularly (and sometimes tragically) mistake routine coincidental events for fragments of some cosmic strategist's grand plan. Countless people could significantly sharpen their understanding of the world and its workings if only they would pay attention to Prof. Mlodinow and other educators striving to explain and clarify the immense influence of chance events on our daily lives. Among the general public, a pervasive lack of appreciation for the importance of randomness often shows up in casual pronouncements such as "There are no coincidences." It is hard to imagine a less true claim. Mlodinow guides the reader through ten chapters forming an entertaining introduction to probability and statistics, with many interesting sidelights. One such is an explanation of Benford's law, which has helped catch criminals trying to fake random number sequences in illegal lotteries. In fact, says the author, some of the characteristics of random series are so counterintuitive that people may imagine they detect a bias. A similar effect once caused Apple Computer to make its iPod shuffle sequences less random in order to seem more random. Having given the reader a useful store of background knowledge in the first nine chapters, the author introduces the kernel of the book's conclusions in chapter 10, which carries the book's main title ("The Drunkard's Walk"). Mlodinow's core theme is that the modern echoes of Laplace's determinist view of the world, embodied in the notion of a personal destiny for each human being, are, on balance, harmful to clear and critical thinking. Our pattern-prone minds are endlessly creative at linking events and experiences into a seemingly coherent version of what some invisible intelligence has in store for us, or has used to influence the fate of others. But the author provides many examples showing that even the most "obvious" causal chains were far more randomly influenced than they appeared to be in the seductively misleading light of 20-20 hindsight. Although it may sound cynical and discouraging at first, the view promoted in this book is actually healthier and ultimately more optimistic than reliance on a mysterious, intelligently- guided "destiny" which needlessly causes us to agonize over the imagined motives of a nonexistent grand supervisor. Just as Darwin found a certain grandeur in the immensely long trial-and-error saga of evolution, we can take comfort in the recognition that we all face the same spectrum of strictly impersonal odds in the daily lottery of life.

How to see that "cruel fate" is an oxymoron ****

Humans are so skilled at pattern-seeking, and so taken with the notion of actively-managed destinies, that they regularly (and sometimes tragically) mistake routine coincidental events for fragments of some cosmic strategist's grand plan. Countless people could significantly sharpen their understanding of the world and its workings if only they would pay attention to Prof. Mlodinow and other educators striving to explain and clarify the immense influence of chance events on our daily lives. Among the general public, a pervasive lack of appreciation for the importance of randomness often shows up in casual pronouncements such as "There are no coincidences." It is hard to imagine a less true claim.

Mlodinow guides the reader through ten chapters forming an entertaining introduction to probability and statistics, with many interesting sidelights. One such is an explanation of Benford's law, which has helped catch criminals trying to fake random number sequences in illegal lotteries. In fact, says the author, some of the characteristics of random series are so counterintuitive that people may imagine they detect a bias. A similar effect once caused Apple Computer to make its iPod shuffle sequences less random in order to seem more random.

Having given the reader a useful store of background knowledge in the first nine chapters, the author introduces the kernel of the book's conclusions in chapter 10, which carries the book's main title ("The Drunkard's Walk"). Mlodinow's core theme is that the modern echoes of Laplace's determinist view of the world, embodied in the notion of a personal destiny for each human being, are, on balance, harmful to clear and critical thinking. Our pattern-prone minds are endlessly creative at linking events and experiences into a seemingly coherent version of what some invisible intelligence has in store for us, or has used to influence the fate of others. But the author provides many examples showing that even the most "obvious" causal chains were far more randomly influenced than they appeared to be in the seductively misleading light of 20-20 hindsight.

Although it may sound cynical and discouraging at first, the view promoted in this book is actually healthier and ultimately more optimistic than reliance on a mysterious, intelligently- guided "destiny" which needlessly causes us to agonize over the imagined motives of a nonexistent grand supervisor. Just as Darwin found a certain grandeur in the immensely long trial-and-error saga of evolution, we can take comfort in the recognition that we all face the same spectrum of strictly impersonal odds in the daily lottery of life.

A fantastic Non-fiction book *****
This book is the perfect book for people wanting to understand how randomness and probability affects us in day to day life. It's highly educational and assists in understanding probability for the less mathematically able yet provides interesting facts and insights for those with a mathematical mind. The book is excellent at showing how awful our minds are at understanding probability, and may help some readers with their daily decisions by analyzing their choices in a more mathematical manner instead of on gut instinct alone - decreasing the frequency of logical fallacies that are rife in the minds of today. Mlodinow is a genius in his humor, a humor that is found on a higher level and requires a keen eye to understand yet with more simple humorous anecdotes and comments also included in the book. Overall this book is an extremely good purchase, it's also taking me a while to read; despite being a keen reader this book is so interesting yet semi-complicated to understand it's taking me a long time to read - which isn't by any means a bad thing, on the contrary, it's only spacing out how long I enjoy it for!

A fantastic Non-fiction book *****

This book is the perfect book for people wanting to understand how randomness and probability affects us in day to day life. It's highly educational and assists in understanding probability for the less mathematically able yet provides interesting facts and insights for those with a mathematical mind.

The book is excellent at showing how awful our minds are at understanding probability, and may help some readers with their daily decisions by analyzing their choices in a more mathematical manner instead of on gut instinct alone - decreasing the frequency of logical fallacies that are rife in the minds of today.

Mlodinow is a genius in his humor, a humor that is found on a higher level and requires a keen eye to understand yet with more simple humorous anecdotes and comments also included in the book.

Overall this book is an extremely good purchase, it's also taking me a while to read; despite being a keen reader this book is so interesting yet semi-complicated to understand it's taking me a long time to read - which isn't by any means a bad thing, on the contrary, it's only spacing out how long I enjoy it for!

Hard work, for me anyway... ***
I was expecting great things from this book, but in the end found it heavy going and didn't even quite get to the end. I think the Malcolm Gladwell book series is better written and far more interesting.

Hard work, for me anyway... ***

I was expecting great things from this book, but in the end found it heavy going and didn't even quite get to the end.

I think the Malcolm Gladwell book series is better written and far more interesting.

Not what it says on the tin! ***
This is more of a mathematical history book than anything else, setting out how and when and by whom various concepts in statistics were first developed, and what their use is. So - if you like that sort of thing......

Not what it says on the tin! ***

This is more of a mathematical history book than anything else, setting out how and when and by whom various concepts in statistics were first developed, and what their use is. So - if you like that sort of thing......

history of statistics *****
the title is incorrect but is explained in the text comes from math not statistics. brilliant explanation of stats and how they affect lives around the planet. some nice personal anecdotes. assumes some knowledge of stats but enough detail for the lay reader. worth buying!

history of statistics *****

the title is incorrect but is explained in the text comes from math not statistics. brilliant explanation of stats and how they affect lives around the planet. some nice personal anecdotes. assumes some knowledge of stats but enough detail for the lay reader. worth buying!

Making sense of it all - life, I mean - at least some aspects of it *****
Essential reading - I wish I'd had this book a long time ago. At times you have to concentrate so I wouldn't call it 'light' but it is illuminating! It's amusing too. Buy it if you are interested in life, the universe and everything.

Making sense of it all - life, I mean - at least some aspects of it *****

Essential reading - I wish I'd had this book a long time ago. At times you have to concentrate so I wouldn't call it 'light' but it is illuminating! It's amusing too. Buy it if you are interested in life, the universe and everything.

A tough read **
I read quite a lot of books like this and I found this one of the most difficult to understand. Each chapter covers a different topic, some just don't make a lot of sense to me, BUT more importantly, most are much better explained elsewhere. For example, on randomness, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is much better and a great read.

A tough read **

I read quite a lot of books like this and I found this one of the most difficult to understand. Each chapter covers a different topic, some just don't make a lot of sense to me, BUT more importantly, most are much better explained elsewhere.

For example, on randomness, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is much better and a great read.

A real life brush with randomness ****
Coincidently, a few days after reading this book, in Jan 2009, the Nebraska Pick 3 Lottery had the same 3 numbers (out of 9) drawn in the exact same sequence two days in a row. The newspapers reported that this was a 'one in a million' chance. I attempted to use Pascal's triangle to calculate whether or not this was true and, not surprisingly, got stumped. My 'gut' said that no, this was much less than a 'one in a million chance'. So I did what any math geek (my words) would do and that was to email Professor Mlodinow (he included his email address in the jacket cover). Within a few days, he responded and confirmed my gut feeling. In fact, picking the winning combination the FIRST time was a one in a million chance but picking it again, was only a one in 1000 chance. It confirmed the basic premise of the book which is that things we think are random, may not be....just do the math.

A real life brush with randomness ****

Coincidently, a few days after reading this book, in Jan 2009, the Nebraska Pick 3 Lottery had the same 3 numbers (out of 9) drawn in the exact same sequence two days in a row. The newspapers reported that this was a 'one in a million' chance. I attempted to use Pascal's triangle to calculate whether or not this was true and, not surprisingly, got stumped. My 'gut' said that no, this was much less than a 'one in a million chance'. So I did what any math geek (my words) would do and that was to email Professor Mlodinow (he included his email address in the jacket cover). Within a few days, he responded and confirmed my gut feeling. In fact, picking the winning combination the FIRST time was a one in a million chance but picking it again, was only a one in 1000 chance. It confirmed the basic premise of the book which is that things we think are random, may not be....just do the math.

Look elsewhere -- contains errors **
The book is decently written and compelling... but also contains at least one significant error in both math and understanding near the beginning of the book that destroyed the author's credibility for me. Several chapters later, I found it impossible to continue. The passage that began my doubts was: "Kahneman and Tversky found that 91% of the doctors believed a clot was less likely to cause just a rare symptom than it was to cause a combination of the rare symptom and a common one." The doctors are right: given two independent events, one with a low probability and one with a high probability, it is more probable that the low probability event will happen in tandem with the high probability event than all by itself.

Look elsewhere -- contains errors **

The book is decently written and compelling... but also contains at least one significant error in both math and understanding near the beginning of the book that destroyed the author's credibility for me. Several chapters later, I found it impossible to continue.

The passage that began my doubts was: "Kahneman and Tversky found that 91% of the doctors believed a clot was less likely to cause just a rare symptom than it was to cause a combination of the rare symptom and a common one."

The doctors are right: given two independent events, one with a low probability and one with a high probability, it is more probable that the low probability event will happen in tandem with the high probability event than all by itself.

Making sense out of the lottery of life ****
XXXXX "I have tried in this book to present the basic concepts of randomness, to illustrate how they apply to human affairs, and to present my views that its effects are largely overlooked in our interpretations of events and in our expectations and decisions. It may come as an epiphany merely to recognize the ubiquitous role of random processes [including chance and uncertainty] in our lives; the true power of the theory of random processes, however, lies in the fact that once we understand the nature of random processes, we can alter the way we perceive the events that happen around us." The above is found in this revealing, engaging, and readable book by Leonard Mlodinow, PhD (physics) who now teaches about randomness to future scientists at the California Institute of Technology. (He also co-authored with Dr. Stephen Hawking the book "A Briefer History of Time.") This book's title comes from a mathematical term describing random motion (such as the paths molecules follow as they fly through space, bumping and being bumped by, their sister molecules). All chapters are meant to lead up to the book' final chapter (that has the same title as the book's title). Generally, the beginning chapters look in a historical context at basic but important concepts in probability theory and statistical inference. (Probability is a numerical value that measures, estimates, or predicts the degree of uncertainty in which an event will occur. Statistical inference {also called inductive statistics} deals with inferences about a population based on a sample {that is, based on limited data} of that population. Thus, the use of probability theory is important since it allows the sample maker {with only limited data about a certain population} to analyse the risk or uncertainty associated with making a decision about that population.) Specifically, this book draws from many disciplines, from mathematics and the traditional sciences as well as cognitive psychology, behavioural economics, and modern neuroscience. It analyzes how the principles that govern chance impinge on politics, business, traditional medicine, economics, sports, leisure, and other human affair areas. Included in the book are graphs and tables to help enhance understanding. Finally, there are a few example problems in this book that require the use of basic mathematics. All example problems are solved by the author. I found some of these solutions difficult to follow and this is my only complaint. I feel that the solutions to these example problems could have been laid out better. Diagrams would also have been helpful in these solutions. However, it is not essential to understand these solutions to grasp the main points of this book. In conclusion, I estimate that any potential reader will be entertained and learn something from this illuminating book!! (first published 2008; prologue; 10 chapters; main narrative 220 pages; acknowledgments; notes; index) <> XXXXX

Making sense out of the lottery of life ****

XXXXX

"I have tried in this book to present the basic concepts of randomness, to illustrate how they apply to human affairs, and to present my views that its effects are largely overlooked in our interpretations of events and in our expectations and decisions. It may come as an epiphany merely to recognize the ubiquitous role of random processes [including chance and uncertainty] in our lives; the true power of the theory of random processes, however, lies in the fact that once we understand the nature of random processes, we can alter the way we perceive the events that happen around us."

The above is found in this revealing, engaging, and readable book by Leonard Mlodinow, PhD (physics) who now teaches about randomness to future scientists at the California Institute of Technology. (He also co-authored with Dr. Stephen Hawking the book "A Briefer History of Time.")

This book's title comes from a mathematical term describing random motion (such as the paths molecules follow as they fly through space, bumping and being bumped by, their sister molecules).

All chapters are meant to lead up to the book' final chapter (that has the same title as the book's title). Generally, the beginning chapters look in a historical context at basic but important concepts in probability theory and statistical inference.

(Probability is a numerical value that measures, estimates, or predicts the degree of uncertainty in which an event will occur. Statistical inference {also called inductive statistics} deals with inferences about a population based on a sample {that is, based on limited data} of that population. Thus, the use of probability theory is important since it allows the sample maker {with only limited data about a certain population} to analyse the risk or uncertainty associated with making a decision about that population.)

Specifically, this book draws from many disciplines, from mathematics and the traditional sciences as well as cognitive psychology, behavioural economics, and modern neuroscience. It analyzes how the principles that govern chance impinge on politics, business, traditional medicine, economics, sports, leisure, and other human affair areas.

Included in the book are graphs and tables to help enhance understanding.

Finally, there are a few example problems in this book that require the use of basic mathematics. All example problems are solved by the author. I found some of these solutions difficult to follow and this is my only complaint. I feel that the solutions to these example problems could have been laid out better. Diagrams would also have been helpful in these solutions.

However, it is not essential to understand these solutions to grasp the main points of this book.

In conclusion, I estimate that any potential reader will be entertained and learn something from this illuminating book!!

(first published 2008; prologue; 10 chapters; main narrative 220 pages; acknowledgments; notes; index)

<>

XXXXX

Stephen Hawking says "very readable". **
I have read some very complicated material in my days, but my first clue should have been Hawking's comment. What is very readable to him will not be to the average person. No doubt some will find it fun, but just so you know it is NOT an easy read by any means, and after a few chapters I gave it away, since I could see no reason to read more: I got his point by then. It's too "random" and full of his theories on things.

Stephen Hawking says "very readable". **

I have read some very complicated material in my days, but my first clue should have been Hawking's comment. What is very readable to him will not be to the average person. No doubt some will find it fun, but just so you know it is NOT an easy read by any means, and after a few chapters I gave it away, since I could see no reason to read more: I got his point by then. It's too "random" and full of his theories on things.