Jeffrey Rosenthal

Struck by Lightning

We live in an uncertain world, and an understanding of probability is vital to prevent us from being decieved by false claims of certainty. In Struck by Lightning:Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities , Jeffrey Rosenthal gives a gentle introduction to the subject to those untutored in the ins and outs of probability.

Rosenthal starts by looking at the coincidences we tend to see in our lives, showing they usually aren't as unlikely as they may seem. Elsewhere he discusses our assessment of risks, showing that they often aren't as bad as we may think. Probability is often associated with games of chance, and several chapters of the book to this topic, showing how casinos always win in the end. Rosenthal also discusses how to interpret statistical studies, and how to look out for possible bias. There are chapters on the perils of opinion polls, on randomness in biology and physics and on how probability is used in distinguishing genuine emails from spam. And of course there's a discussion of the infamous Monty Hall question.

Some books appeal both to the beginner and to those with more experience in a subject, but I'm not sure that this is one of them - I'm not convinced there's enough to hold the interest of those who already know something about probability theory. But if you don't and you want a light-hearted introduction to the subject then this is probably the book for you.

Amazon.com info

Paperback 270 pages
ISBN: 0309097347
Salesrank: 15438
Weight:0.65 lbs

Published: 2006 Joseph Henry Press

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Amazon.co.uk info

Paperback 288 pages
ISBN: 186207996X
Salesrank: 54966
Weight:0.44 lbs

Published: 2008 Granta Books

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Amazon.ca info

Hardcover 258 pages
ISBN: 0002007916
Salesrank: 50367
Weight:0.1 lbs

Published: 2005 Harper Collins Canada

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Book Description
READ THIS BOOK: Win the Lottery? From terrorist attacks to big money jackpots, Struck by Lightning deconstructs the odds and oddities of chance, examining both the relevant and irreverent role of randomness in our everyday lives. Human beings have long been both fascinated and appalled by randomness. On the one hand, we love the thrill of a surprise party, the unpredictability of a budding romance, or the freedom of not knowing what tomorrow will bring. We are inexplicably delighted by strange coincidences and striking similarities. But we also hate uncertainty’s dark side. From cancer to SARS, diseases strike with no apparent pattern. Terrorists attack, airplanes crash, bridges collapse, and we never know if we’ll be that one in a million statistic. We are all constantly faced with situations and choices that involve randomness and uncertainty. A basic understanding of the rules of probability theory, applied to real-life circumstances, can help us to make sense of these situations, to avoid unnecessary fear, to seize the opportunities that randomness presents to us, and to actually enjoy the uncertainties we face. The reality is that when it comes to randomness, you can run, but you can’t hide. So many aspects of our lives are governed by events that are simply not in our control. In this entertaining yet sophisticated look at the world of probabilities, author Jeffrey Rosenthal—and improbably talented math professor—explains the mechanics of randomness and teaches us how to develop an informed perspective on probability.

Book Description

READ THIS BOOK: Win the Lottery? From terrorist attacks to big money jackpots, Struck by Lightning deconstructs the odds and oddities of chance, examining both the relevant and irreverent role of randomness in our everyday lives.

Human beings have long been both fascinated and appalled by randomness. On the one hand, we love the thrill of a surprise party, the unpredictability of a budding romance, or the freedom of not knowing what tomorrow will bring. We are inexplicably delighted by strange coincidences and striking similarities. But we also hate uncertainty’s dark side. From cancer to SARS, diseases strike with no apparent pattern. Terrorists attack, airplanes crash, bridges collapse, and we never know if we’ll be that one in a million statistic.

We are all constantly faced with situations and choices that involve randomness and uncertainty. A basic understanding of the rules of probability theory, applied to real-life circumstances, can help us to make sense of these situations, to avoid unnecessary fear, to seize the opportunities that randomness presents to us, and to actually enjoy the uncertainties we face.

The reality is that when it comes to randomness, you can run, but you can’t hide. So many aspects of our lives are governed by events that are simply not in our control. In this entertaining yet sophisticated look at the world of probabilities, author Jeffrey Rosenthal—and improbably talented math professor—explains the mechanics of randomness and teaches us how to develop an informed perspective on probability.

Not Exactly Freakonomics **
Maybe I've been spoiled after reading Freakonomics, which was so clever and unique it was hard to put down, but I found this book to be pretty dull in comparison. Most of the examples were just not that interesting or unique topics to read about, such as gambling odds, political polls, crime statistics and a rehash of the Monte Hall problem from Parade magazine, which was widely written about years ago.

Not Exactly Freakonomics **

Maybe I've been spoiled after reading Freakonomics, which was so clever and unique it was hard to put down, but I found this book to be pretty dull in comparison. Most of the examples were just not that interesting or unique topics to read about, such as gambling odds, political polls, crime statistics and a rehash of the Monte Hall problem from Parade magazine, which was widely written about years ago.

Delightful perspective builder ****
'Curious' is a quick read about our conceptions and misconceptions on common problems like winning lotteries (don't buy a ticket), winning card games, death, illness, opinion polls and a dozen or so other topics. Fun stuff. You might also read 'Freakanomics' which is way more esoteric and mind-boggling.

Delightful perspective builder ****

'Curious' is a quick read about our conceptions and misconceptions on common problems like winning lotteries (don't buy a ticket), winning card games, death, illness, opinion polls and a dozen or so other topics. Fun stuff. You might also read 'Freakanomics' which is way more esoteric and mind-boggling.

This Book is a Good Bet ****
This book is written in short, digestible bites, and offers one of the best overview answers I've read to everyone's perennial question, "What are the odds?" Early chapters are a primer on casino games. In less than an hour, you can read up on how the major casino games are played, how to calculate your odds of winning in many common situations - and how much you will lose on every play on average if you play for any length of time. Rosenthal emphasizes this last proviso. He shows how EVERY casino game is stacked against the players and will whittle away your stake to nothing in the long run. But some games offer better odds and will deplete you less rapidly than other games. Then Rosenthal moves on to tell you how to win at the game of life - or more precisely, how not to be caught up in the frequent illogic and hysteria that is generated by headline news and TV shows. He gives a better perspective on what kinds of dangers you are likely to actually face - and they are not terrorists or SARS or street crime. A few more mathematically challenging topics are addressed - such as the Monty Hall dilemma, and how trends are spotted using linear regression lines. Rosenthal makes the calculation of p-values (used to determine how often a result will happen just by chance) almost comprehensible. Some of his suggestions about using utility theory when we have to reach a decision may be of questionable value. Probably many of us have tried to make decisions "rationally" by using some formula that involves assigning some level-of-desirability number to each of our options, then considering how likely it is that the benefits of that option will actually materialize. But such calculations usually break down almost immediately in the maze of diverging possibilities we have to consider. However one of Rosenthal's applications of utility theory stands up and has implications for public policy. He shows how statistics lead to the conclusion that it is unreasonably costly to insure oneself against anything except utter catastrophes. This section of his book is something everyone should consider when buying insurance, especially health insurance. And it's something our elected officials in particular should inform themselves about before proposing any health care legislation. Rosenthal provides other valuable insights that might shield us and reassure us when facing health care issues. For example, he demonstrates how statistically unlikely it is that you have a certain disease if just one test for that disease comes back positive. For further statistical discussions of this counterintuitive fact, I recommend any of Marilyn vos Savant's books. "Struck by Lightning" provides ample insight on its own though. It's entertaining, and it contains information you're very likely to use in everyday life.

This Book is a Good Bet ****

This book is written in short, digestible bites, and offers one of the best overview answers I've read to everyone's perennial question, "What are the odds?"

Early chapters are a primer on casino games. In less than an hour, you can read up on how the major casino games are played, how to calculate your odds of winning in many common situations - and how much you will lose on every play on average if you play for any length of time. Rosenthal emphasizes this last proviso. He shows how EVERY casino game is stacked against the players and will whittle away your stake to nothing in the long run. But some games offer better odds and will deplete you less rapidly than other games.

Then Rosenthal moves on to tell you how to win at the game of life - or more precisely, how not to be caught up in the frequent illogic and hysteria that is generated by headline news and TV shows. He gives a better perspective on what kinds of dangers you are likely to actually face - and they are not terrorists or SARS or street crime.

A few more mathematically challenging topics are addressed - such as the Monty Hall dilemma, and how trends are spotted using linear regression lines. Rosenthal makes the calculation of p-values (used to determine how often a result will happen just by chance) almost comprehensible.

Some of his suggestions about using utility theory when we have to reach a decision may be of questionable value. Probably many of us have tried to make decisions "rationally" by using some formula that involves assigning some level-of-desirability number to each of our options, then considering how likely it is that the benefits of that option will actually materialize. But such calculations usually break down almost immediately in the maze of diverging possibilities we have to consider.

However one of Rosenthal's applications of utility theory stands up and has implications for public policy. He shows how statistics lead to the conclusion that it is unreasonably costly to insure oneself against anything except utter catastrophes. This section of his book is something everyone should consider when buying insurance, especially health insurance. And it's something our elected officials in particular should inform themselves about before proposing any health care legislation.

Rosenthal provides other valuable insights that might shield us and reassure us when facing health care issues. For example, he demonstrates how statistically unlikely it is that you have a certain disease if just one test for that disease comes back positive. For further statistical discussions of this counterintuitive fact, I recommend any of Marilyn vos Savant's books.

"Struck by Lightning" provides ample insight on its own though. It's entertaining, and it contains information you're very likely to use in everyday life.

Odds Are... You'll Like It ****
Shortly after I took this book out at the library I felt a sense of disappointment come over me because I saw the Canadian maple leaf on the spine of the book - making me aware it's a Canadian author. Being a Canuck myself, I've never been a big fan of Canadian lit but just as soon as I started reading this book I knew I was in for a treat! Struck by Lightning is a book about probabilities and randomness in everyday life, intended to inform and entertain readers without requiring any mathematics background. Odds are you'll like this Lightning strike. These type of books are so much fun ... anecdotes and examples which will stay with the reader long after the last page is turned. And there are not many books that can manage that feat. Lightning strikes are just the start of an exploration of the odds which confront us all. For the booming numbers of poker players there are numerous studies on when to hold em and when to fold em. And for regular casino-goers, there are the odds of each popular game of chance none of which are ever in the player's favour. But the most fun are those tidbits of probabilities with which you can astound your friends and make some cash if you want to rub your knowledge in their collective faces. ... Amaze your friends, confound your rivals. Buy Struck By Lightning and have some fun.

Odds Are... You'll Like It ****

Shortly after I took this book out at the library I felt a sense of disappointment come over me because I saw the Canadian maple leaf on the spine of the book - making me aware it's a Canadian author. Being a Canuck myself, I've never been a big fan of Canadian lit but just as soon as I started reading this book I knew I was in for a treat!
Struck by Lightning is a book about probabilities and randomness in everyday life, intended to inform and entertain readers without requiring any mathematics background. Odds are you'll like this Lightning strike. These type of books are so much fun ... anecdotes and examples which will stay with the reader long after the last page is turned. And there are not many books that can manage that feat. Lightning strikes are just the start of an exploration of the odds which confront us all. For the booming numbers of poker players there are numerous studies on when to hold em and when to fold em. And for regular casino-goers, there are the odds of each popular game of chance none of which are ever in the player's favour. But the most fun are those tidbits of probabilities with which you can astound your friends and make some cash if you want to rub your knowledge in their collective faces. ... Amaze your friends, confound your rivals. Buy Struck By Lightning and have some fun.

A Great Practical Book on Probability in the Everyday World *****
I love books like this! I saw this one, browsed through it a bit and bought it right away because it looked very good - it was. I can confidently say that this is one of the best books of its type. The author explains, in very clear language, the nature of probability and its use in understanding some of the many areas in everyday life that could otherwise remain very obscure or misunderstood. The topics covered include gambling games and methods, the ways casinos operate (this may be very surprising to many), card games and strategies, pre-election polls, certain game shows, the war against spam, weather prediction, and many other areas where probability plays a key role. The author, an expert in the field, writes very well and in such an engaging and often humorous style that the book is almost impossible to put down. Those who read this book will understand a bit more about how the world that we live in actually works. I highly recommended this book to everyone!!

A Great Practical Book on Probability in the Everyday World *****

I love books like this! I saw this one, browsed through it a bit and bought it right away because it looked very good - it was. I can confidently say that this is one of the best books of its type. The author explains, in very clear language, the nature of probability and its use in understanding some of the many areas in everyday life that could otherwise remain very obscure or misunderstood. The topics covered include gambling games and methods, the ways casinos operate (this may be very surprising to many), card games and strategies, pre-election polls, certain game shows, the war against spam, weather prediction, and many other areas where probability plays a key role. The author, an expert in the field, writes very well and in such an engaging and often humorous style that the book is almost impossible to put down. Those who read this book will understand a bit more about how the world that we live in actually works. I highly recommended this book to everyone!!

You'll probably like this, allowing for a 3.8% margin of error ***
If you have read the book, "Why do buses come in threes" many of the statistical quirks identified in this book will be known to you. There are however a number of humerous anecdotes in this book that make it a worthy purchase, especially the story about the frog! Some way into the book the author gets bogged down a bit in electoral statistics, but his stuff on gambling is surprisingly readable and will certainly keep me out of casinos for the forseeable future.

You'll probably like this, allowing for a 3.8% margin of error ***

If you have read the book, "Why do buses come in threes" many of the statistical quirks identified in this book will be known to you. There are however a number of humerous anecdotes in this book that make it a worthy purchase, especially the story about the frog! Some way into the book the author gets bogged down a bit in electoral statistics, but his stuff on gambling is surprisingly readable and will certainly keep me out of casinos for the forseeable future.

SUPER BOOK. *****
This book is great light reading into probability theory in an interesting way, such as your chances of winning the national lottery: if you bought one ticket a week... it would take 250,000 years to win!!! Highly recommended, for all.

SUPER BOOK. *****

This book is great light reading into probability theory in an interesting way, such as your chances of winning the national lottery: if you bought one ticket a week... it would take 250,000 years to win!!!

Highly recommended, for all.

Poker, lotteries, viruses and polls - this is math! ****
Struck By Lightning does a fantastic job of making probability accessible to non-math geeks. This would have been a great one to accompany my statistics course in university! While at times Rosenthal seems to get a little too caught up in explaining all the numbers and equations, this book is highly readable and enjoyable. I especially enjoyed the little "final exam" at the end!

Poker, lotteries, viruses and polls - this is math! ****

Struck By Lightning does a fantastic job of making probability accessible to non-math geeks. This would have been a great one to accompany my statistics course in university! While at times Rosenthal seems to get a little too caught up in explaining all the numbers and equations, this book is highly readable and enjoyable. I especially enjoyed the little "final exam" at the end!