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Mark Lynas

Six degrees : our future on a hotter planet

Global Warming is much in the news nowadays and so it should be - most of the other problems we have pale into insignificance compared to what global warming might bring. InSix degrees : our future on a hotter planet Mark Lynas tells the reader just how bad it might get.

The book is divided into chapters from 1° to 6°, each describing what is likely to happen with that degree of warming. 1 ° means that many mountain glaciers will shrink, leading to water shortages around the rivers they feed. Fragile ecosystems are also likely to be hit badly. 2° will mean that the heatwaves of 2003 will come to be thought of as normal, and that much of the arctic ice will disappear. I'll skip ahead here and point out that even if we go ahead with most of the plans to limit global warming, we're still likely to have a temperature rise of 1-2 degrees. And it gets worse. 3° means the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, and more devastating storms. 4° leads to the huge sea level rise we've seen in the movies. 5° - well if it gets that bad then it's not likely to stop there. Positive feedback mechanisms such as the release of methane hydrates will mean the temperature will go on increasing. This brings us to 6°, which may well lead to a mass extinction - worse than that at the end of the Permian, since it will happen so much quicker.

The book ends with a look at which of these temperatures it is likely to be, and emphasises that business as usual is simply not an option and that the naysayers are just clutching at straws. Lynas argues however, that we are not powerless to tackle the problem. One of the things I liked about this book was the way that Lynas packed in a great amount of detail, which can't just be dismissed with a few platitudes, but did so in a way that kept the readers interest. Hence I feel that this is likely to be an important book in spreading the message of what we are likely to be in for.

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Hardcover 336 pages  
ISBN: 142620213X
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Published: 2008 National Geographic
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Paperback 288 pages  
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Product Description
Possibly the most graphic treatment of global warming that has yet been published, Six Degrees is what readers of Al Gore's best-selling An Inconvenient Truth or Ross Gelbspan's Boiling Point will turn to next. Written by the acclaimed author of High Tide, this highly relevant and compelling book uses accessible journalistic prose to distill what environmental scientists portend about the consequences of human pollution for the next hundred years.

In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a landmark report projecting average global surface temperatures to rise between 1.4 degrees and 5.8 degrees Celsius (roughly 2 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of this century. Based on this forecast, author Mark Lynas outlines what to expect from a warming world, degree by degree. At 1 degree Celsius, most coral reefs and many mountain glaciers will be lost. A 3-degree rise would spell the collapse of the Amazon rainforest, disappearance of Greenland's ice sheet, and the creation of deserts across the Midwestern United States and southern Africa. A 6-degree increase would eliminate most life on Earth, including much of humanity.

Based on authoritative scientific articles, the latest computer models, and information about past warm events in Earth history, Six Degrees promises to be an eye-opening warning that humanity will ignore at its peril.
 
Horrible, and Reasons Why *
Before I begin, this book was "interesting", that is the highlight of the positives...

This book was written more for those that fear what they cannot control (recycling will barely put a damper on anything, even though I do it myself and insist all friends and family do for moral reasons). There is a trend of liberals that have, for lack of better terms, graduated from the beatnik niche of evening coffee house goers. The same "graduates" like to latch onto doom and fear, a more 'adult' parallel of 'emo' music, and silently scream to each other "we're all going to die, we're evil and deserve it." I'm not sure what wave of what generation this started in, but with technology it has advanced and become more widespread. I just wish people could learn to think for themselves.

The concept is simple, and similar to cult behavior. Latch onto something (supposedly) horrific, instill that fear in others, gain their following (and bottomless wallet for your products and donations), get rich, and leave your sheep behind.

Anyone worth their weight in salt knows the BS side of something, and the factual side of something, and is willing to share that with others. When something is completely one-sided, it begins to bring in the simpletons than need something to worry about, and scares off free-minded individuals.

How does this relate to the book? It is long winded, but I try to bring up a point: the author slams case after statistic after theoretical horror of what our "future" holds, but never steps back to say "take the flip-side into consideration and exaggerated measures used to draw attention and come to your own conclusion."

WAIT...wasn't this book printed on paper and not just given as a card with a coupon to download the PDF? Oh the hypocrisy!
 
Makes the Point that Prevention of Warming is Necessary for our Survival *****
Six Degrees does a great job at simply laying out what each degree of warming will do to our planet, and therefore to us. Mark Lynas is able to explain the effects of warming in an authoritative way because it's based on what the earth has already done in the past, with a warmer climate at various times eons ago. Although many think a warmer planet may not be a bad thing (too many cold winters in Buffalo?), this book is able to show that unless you are some exotic form of tropical algae, a warming world would be disastrous for you and human civilization.

The author describes why the hotter planet would be a bad thing. I know a lot of climate change skeptics correctly point out that in the past, the planet was a lot hotter than it is now, so what's the big deal? The reason why global warming is bad is because our entire ability to grow food has evolved only in the past 10,000 years - the most stable climate the planet has seen in millions of years, and even very small temperature increases of just 2, 3, or 4 degrees (Celsius) would wreak absolute havoc on our ability to grow enough food to feed the world. Imagine the conflicts of a modern Somalia magnified to every country in the world - not a pleasant thought.

The author probably does a better job of describing what even small temperature increases would do to us - wreaking havoc on food production, rising sea levels, etc., than actually making the case that humans are definitely creating a warmer world through all our fossil fuel combustion (showing that the warming is not part of a natural cycle). For more basic science on how we are warming the planet, I'd recommend The Discovery of Global Warming by Spencer Weart.

If this book doesn't scare you into taking global warming seriously, probably nothing will. In some ways, I'm not that happy about reading this book, because it points me to the frightening conclusion that given the inevitable time lag between knowing and acting, our human race is in for some very unpleasant times ahead for the next few hundred years; all because we did nothing to slow down global warming.

However, it's better to know the truth than believe a big lie, at least we can mitigate some of the worst changes if we have the political and personal will to do so, which will give us more time to adapt to a hotter, drier world with less arable growing land, and flooded low coastal areas.
 
Don't read this one first. *****
If you are new to global warming, I would suggest not reading this book first. If you do, you might find it to be a bit paranoid and based on questionable premises. However, if you read a couple other books first and have a good background on what the study of global warming is all about, this book fills a nice niche. It does something few other books do. The author has attempted to sift through a whole bunch of studies and rank them based on the rise in temperature they cover, hence the title, Six Degrees. In other words, all the studies he found about what the world would be like if temperatures went up one degree are summarized in chapter one, two degrees in chapter two, and so on. Obviously he's not a scientist, so his evaluation of the situation is more from a journalist's point of view, but it's interesting and a useful way of thinking about things nonetheless. The big payoff is at the end where he talks about the current siutation and what would need to be done to stabilize temperatures at different levels. He gives an unvarnished view of how dire things are. A lot of other books written by scientists kind of hint between the lines that it will be tough to achieve any progress, or that it's already too late. This book comes right out and says we have a massive task ahead of us. The author also briefly covers reasons why people like to deny or ignore global warming. He claims it's part of human nature. In any case, this book presents a grim picture of a worldwide society overshooting its ability to live sustainably in its environment.
 
A gripping and scary look into our climatic future *****
This book is an excellent summary of current knowledge of global warming. The future looks frightening. I've decided to do my part by cutting back on driving and getting solar panels.
 
The Planet has been here before & Lynas is wrong *
In 1000 AD the Vikings sailed, sleeveless, to Greenland and Newfoundland. The Greenland glaciers were all but gone, and the valleys were verdant. Scotland's climate was similar to that of Southern France today. The Scots had vineyards and produced lots of wine. The rest of the world did not succumb to drought. The polar bears did not go extinct, and oceans did not rise to high as to flood London and (to come) New York. Lynas is stark raving mad, and so are those who fall for this literary tripe.

Global temperatures have been cycling, with a five degree Celsius amplitude, for 800 million years. We have been dealing with a peak of several of the cycles involved, and they are due to decline.

The foolish arrogance of those who presume that anthropogenic CO2 is somehow overwhelming those cycles will be looked upon as having as much intelligence as those who sank women in ponds to see if they are witches. Those who sank were innocent! Those who floated were sentenced to death for being witches.

Even if global warming caused a two degree warming it would take a century or more for significant changes to ocean levels to materialize. In such a period of time shoreline property values would be affected by the aging of buildings (to worthless) and the perception of young investors to live elsewhere. "Elsewhere" might mean 200 or 300 miles farther towards the poles in order to experience the same conditions they would now experience. Given the time frame anyone could adjust. Whereas the draconian measures presently advocated to solve this non-crisis would do far more harm than the crisis would at its worst.
Even "Chicken Little" is calm in the face of perceived crisis, compared to the scaremongering nonsense of Lynas, Gore, Suzuki (Canada) et al.
 
Playing loose and fast with science *
I am not an eco-nut. Mark Lynas is.

In Six Degrees, Mark Lynas sets out to compile all the scientific data to show what the effects would be of warming the world, one degree at a time, from one to six degrees celsius. This is a worthwhile exercise. People see that the temperature varies by way more than six degrees between morning and afternoon; from season to season; from day to day. There is a real job to do in persuading people that global warming is not about being warmer, it's about the potential collapse of ecosystems.

However, that's the end of the praise.

In trying to turn scientific evidence into popular language, Lynas loses the scientific objectivity of the original articles. His writing is laden heavy with value judgements and emotive language. Some of it adds no information, it's just there to tug at heartstrings. For example: " When the Englishmen Craig Higgins and Victor Saunders left the Hornli hut at 4am on 15 July 2003, they had no idea that they would end the day being part of the biggest rescue on Switzerland's iconic Matterhorn" is about an inane a statement as you could make. Seriously, the book's full of this stuff.

When there is conflicting evidence from different studies, Lynas expands upon the one with the worst outcomes and dismisses the studies that don't fit his thesis with a flick of the wrist. There is no serious effort made to weigh up the evidence. I lost count of the number of times he plugged his previous book - High Tide - and found the repeated references to Lynas's globetrotting, his house in Oxfordshire, his prowess as an academic, diver and mountaineer somewhat wearying. For a man who doesn't like consumerism, he is remarkably proficient at it. But then this was a man who was interviewed in his own film (The Age of Stupid) so I hadn't expected objectivity to be the strong point of Six Degrees.

And after all this science-lite with the conclusions laid on a plate, illuminated by neon lights, the piece de resistance was Chapter 7 - Lynas's manifesto for change. This includes pearls of wisdom such as: "probably the worst wedge option of all is that of biofuels. Already corn derived ethanol is being blended into gasoline in the United States, ostensibly to reduce CO2 emissions, but in reality having more to do with subsidising the politically powerful farming lobby in `red' Republican states". This, one suspects, is at the heart of Lynas's agenda - attacking capitalism and the establishment - but without having to justify the argument. The mere mention of Republicans is deemed sufficient to clinch the argument. Sorry, but that's the sort of politics we left behind at school.

Is the climate changing? Perhaps. Is it manmade? Perhaps. Can we stop it? Perhaps. But Six Degrees doesn't shed much light on the subject. The climate change lobby does itself no favours with sloppy, partisan presentation of the evidence. Starting with the conclusion and searching for the evidence to support it is indefensible.
 
six degrees *
It has been six degrees warmer before. When the Romans were here they had massive vineyards in the north of England. Yes we are experiencing "Global
Warming" but it will not be mankinds downfall and it is not caused by CO2.
So buy some land and order some vines and dont worry
 
A good book, well worth reading ****
The book was interesting to read and written so that none scientists could understand. It filled in quite a number of gaps in my knowledge of climate change. The material was well researched with an extensive list of original research papers. It would have been interesting to see a detailed plan for the U.K. to survive the six degree scenario.
 
Come on... *
For crying out loud, why don't we all open our mouths and swallow whatever rot the 'IPCC' feed us. There are so many flaws with this book that can only be seen as propoganda aimed at people who cannot think for themselves. Yes, global warming is almost certainly occurring but it has been blown out of all proportion and all to benefit propositions made by the government. (Carbon taxes to name but one, however that's a whole different kettle of fish.) Look at the End-Permian extinction. An approximated rise in temperature of 5 degrees Celcius is believed to have wiped out the vast majority of terrestrial and marine life. Do you really think this took a century?! Evidence pointing to the Permo-Triassic extinction has been locked away in stratigraphy - the thickness of which is substantianly more than could be deposited in a century! Think between 100,000 to 300,000 years worth.

So come on Mark Lynas, 6 degrees celcius in a century is hugely arrogant because we are so insignificant regarding global surface processes. If you were to look at recent scientific papers, you might be surprised to find that climatologists and geologists predict a 0.8 degree rise in temperature over the next century.

File this one under fantasy.
 
This book could save your life *****
This is the best book on the subject I have ever read and I feel it should be mandatory for all school children over 12 years old. I have been following the global warming debate for over 20 years now (both as an environmentalist and former journalist) from its early days when there were a few very worried scientists getting trashed by the politicians to protect big business, to now when we have thousands of very worried leading scientists and terrified experts of the highest calibre getting trashed by politicians to protect big business. This book is vital and I only wish it could have appeared ten years ago when we still had a chance of making a real difference. The science that Lynas reviews is the best available to us and he communicates difficult subject matter very clearly and with real skill. For such a dry subject (no pun intended) the book is actually quite gripping but it doesn't fall into the easy trap of trivialising or sensationalising the raw data. Let's face it, these are terrifying enough on their own. Read it, it could save your life.
 
Six Degrees of warming is highly speculative and I'm very thankful for that. *
I did not take this all the way to the end because the later arguments stand on the shoulders of the earlier bits. The earlier bits are crumbly, and my blood pressure, normally normal, was rising faster than the Author's imagination. I am keeping this book away from my library to prevent my library getting a fever.
P. 17
In the United States, fluid inclusion data from ice core are commonly used, but I suspect the data are very unreliable. Researchers at UofT never used secondary inclusions (bubbles on healed fractures) for sphalerite geothermometry, and never even bothered with calcite fluid inclusions, assuming them worthless because of the weakness of calcite. Strictly speaking, determining whether an inclusion is primary is not possible. It is possible, however, to determine whether an inclusion is secondary, but not the other way around. Many secondary inclusions are unrecognised until set in context where they cannot fit thermodynamically and then they are discarded.
Ice is an open system simply because it expands as it freezes. Think of it this way. Ice will vacuum ambient air into its structure as it crystallizes. The trapped gasses then reorganise into bubbles. Moreover, the transition from firn to ice can take hundreds to thousands of years on any particular glacier. In the top transparent to translucent tens of metres, the firn freezes and thaws an unknowable number of times before conditions obtain to freeze it for the long term as crystalline ice.
The isotopes used for temperature determinations are heavy isotopes of oxygen and carbon; in a closed system, they proxy for temperature. In an open system, the light isotopes differentially leave the system and the heavies concentrate. In the ice core scientific papers I have from Lonnie T., the presentations include a hockey stick that has a handle which projects deep down into the ice with little variation. The bent blade of the stick corresponds to the upper end of the core where the open system prevails progressively more open toward the surface. The scientist measures the ambient temperature and calibrates it to isotope ratios of the newest ice. The ratios down the hole are then heavier and represent by proxy, lower temperatures. Hence, a global temperature curve of warming is produced that corresponds abruptly with the Industrial Revolution.
This is not the temperature record. The isotopic record is an artefact of the age of burial, degassing of the lighter isotopes, and progressive closing of the system. Glaciologists like Thompson have made a career of ice fluid inclusions, but they miss out the warm period of the Roman Empire, Medieval Warm period when Greenland was farmland and the Little Ice Age when the Alps were impassable. I am certain that the corrupt data issue is caused by publish or perish overspecialization, but the only way to ignore those episodes of geological climatic history is to cherry pick the background reading. Like the urban heating curves used by the Goddard Space Flight Institute, this database is corrupt and the student should go back to the lab in the basement or fail his Masters. Unfortunately, Lonny's bandwagon keeps on rolling. Does he know it? Only a cynic would say, "Of course he does".
P 21.
Interestingly enough, The Sand Mountains of the Rhub al Khali were formed by Westerlies blowing 100 kms an hour for 100s of years at a time. They are the Seif dunes of the Sahara (Google Earth). Seif is Arabic for sword, the long curved one. Seif dunes formed during the Pleistocene while climatic zones were compressed by an ice cap covering North America and the Alps. The Neanderthals lived in caves for good reason.
P. 29
Global warming as normal climates change is not the same meaning as anthropogenic global warming (AGW) caused by CO2. This assumption comes up as the author's circular argument all through the book.
P. 82
Wrong, not 70,000 - 100,000 years ago. I asked Environment Canada and got the answer. Polar Bears are at least 1,000,000 years old. They can interbreed with brown bears and produce fertile offspring (however, polar bears are extremely xenophobic so that intermarriage is beneath their station). Last year someone shot a dead Grizzly/Polar cross and used its picture as evidence of stress from global warming. The white bear has great camouflage for ice and the brown race does not. However, they contain the genes to go either way, and the genes have survived many ice ages and interglacial episodes with races swinging from white to brown and back depending on Darwin's whim.
P. 87
Bangladesh has added 10s of thousands of hectares of land area since the book Six Degrees of Warming: Our Future on a Hotter Planet was published. Sea level is the base level. As sea level rises (4-6 mm a year), the rivers and deltas dump their sediment and build barrier islands as a direct causal succession or consequence. This is part of progradation, the process that has formed the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains and barriers. Following the Pleistocene glaciations coral atolls rose and siliciclastic barriers grew. Subtle sea level rise just leads to nice places to have holidays. Darwin drew some clear diagrams if the formation of an atoll from a subsiding coral island.
To rise 120 metres since the last glaciations, sea level needs to rise 6 mm a year on average (125m / 20,000 years). The current numbers (UN IPCC 2-3 mm/ year) indicate the rise is slowing rather than increasing. An additional complication lies in isostatic rebound. From New York City northward including the Canadian Shield over to Hudson Bay, the land is rising faster than sea level.
P. 101 and 103
Climate Change is not the same as Anthropogenic Global Warming. AGW is (to me) the temperatures posted by Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) which includes much corrupt data from urbanized weather stations across the United States. Moreover, the GISS database no longer has updates from the Siberian stations closed for economic reasons after the collapse of the USSR. The media do not notice this bias.
P. 114
Botswana is a desert, Australia is a desert, and the Gobi and Sahara are deserts because of their positions respecting topography or global wind systems.
P. 115
CO2 has exceeded 400 pm several times in the past 130 years. It was 400 ppm as recently as 1942. Measurements of atmospheric CO2 for the past 130 years by Ernst-George Beck [Google him] show the UN IPCC has cooked the books. The measurements accumulated from the chemical literature by Beck include analyses by five Nobel Prize winning chemists. Mauna Loa is a very short database on a volcano that issues CO2. The main reason, however, could be the demise of pineapple farming and replacement with condominiums. I have never seen the promoters use a curve from anywhere else. (?)
P. 119
BAS Principal Investigator Dr Alan Haywood said,
`There are two schools of thought about past warm intervals. Many scientists suggest that they were caused by ocean currents (like the Gulf Stream) moving greater amounts of warm water from the tropics to the Polar Regions. Others speculate that increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere initiated warming all over the planet. We used the latest supercomputing technology combined with chemical analysis of seabed sediments to make a sophisticated reconstruction of past sea temperatures. If the warming was caused by ocean currents, we would expect to see cooling at the tropics and warming at the poles. Conversely, if CO2 was the cause then we would expect both the tropics and the poles to warm. The sea temperature pattern we found points the finger squarely at CO2 rather than the ocean currents. This is a real breakthrough for those of us investigating past climate - we've made a major contribution to a long standing argument and our findings are critical to understanding how climate may respond to emissions of greenhouse gases in the future'[THAT'S FOR YOUR PEERS TO DECIDE].
However, if the warming were due to another cause, say the solar hypothesis, which briefly stated is "It's the sun, STUPID", the warming causes retrograde solubility to kick in thus increasing atmospheric CO2. Do not warm your ginger ale and shake it.
P. 120
Cause and effect. Retrograde solubility (Not the only thing I ever learned from grad school). The reason Al Gore got so much attention from real scientists was this piece. CO2 trailed warming on his presentation. CO2 dissolves in cold water and evolves out of warm water. It is an effect of global warming rather than a cause. Do not warm your beer; it goes flat. I would buy the book to use as an example of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing.
 
Six steps to some surprises *****
It's hard to understand how there could be any climate change "sceptics" remaining. Perhaps they have failed to comprehend the long view of what the circumstances are. What does an increase in global temperatures really mean? Mark Lynas has culled the massive number of reports on the topic and here woven them into a comprehensive picture of likely futures for this planet. In this effective work, he lines out what the changes in our biosphere are likely to be over the next decades. It's a chilling account and one that should be in the hands of every industrialist, policy-maker and tax-paying consumer.

Using the data supplied by his extensive resources, Lynas depicts global and regional changes in environment due to increase over time. His temperature range selection is driven by the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC's reports indicate a six degree Celsius increase over the next century. Integrating the scientific research on the biosphere, IPCC is able to review existing and past conditions and those likely to ensue in the future. Lynas synthesizes the reports to present a picture of conditions likely with each degree of heat will lead to over time. The first degree is typified by examples of drought. The Great Plains of the US trans-Mississippi is already showing signs of that dry-out. The author explains that drought in one place may be off-set by rainstorms elsewhere. Heat over land desiccates, but heat over water increases evaporation leading to greater precipitation. Even with but a single step up in temperature, the rains may be intense in some locales. This seems to be occurring already, with ravaging storms displacing many refugees. Katrina is almost certainly an example of the new environment.

As he progresses through the impact of biosphere heating, he reminds the reader that the social costs will only grow higher. If the North Atlantic Current is flooded by fresh water runoff from North America and Greenland, northern Europe may be facing a cold snap. The cooling will be brief, however, as dry conditions will move into Europe from Africa. The moving warm air will be accompanied by the Mediterranean population fleeing dried-out farms and depleted fisheries. While there remains doubt about how long it might take to shut down the Gulf Stream, the drought conditions are inevitable if the rate of heating continues unabated. Millions of people will be displaced, but whether they will find refuge is problematic. As Lynas points out, the forces and numbers involved here are so staggering that it's difficult for all of us to conceive of them in our minds. Katrina emptied an entire city, but those people were absorbed into other areas. The idea of whole nations on the move is beyond imagining. Yet that is the very prospect we, and our children will be facing.

The point of this book is that during the ensuing decades, we are all, every culture, religion, social group and government, facing a planetary disruption of unpredictable severity. That's a difficult concept to grasp, but the challenge is there and clearly present. Attempts to deny it may give us superficial comfort, but, as Lynas points out, similar crises have occurred in the past. Our civilisations weren't there to experience them and we have few precedents to draw on for planning corrective action. He describes those ancient events with clarity and concern, but leaves to the reader how the conditions might affect their daily lives. It's not an easy task, but obviously must be undertaken.

If there's a serious flaw in this book - and there isn't - the major one is the failure to assess cascade effects through time. Explaining conditions by steps of temperature is a useful and needed exercise. What's lacking is some effort to deal with the population displacement and the results of that movement. While it would necessarily be in the realm of speculation, the questions should have been raised, or where they are noted, been offered with greater clarity. Lynas' own use of language, however, is severe enough. Tackling the social questions more thoroughly might exhaust his lexicon. The human issue is, to us, the big one, but the next step in his analysis might also have prompted some actions we might consider. Several recent books, most notably George Monbiot's "Heat" address this question squarely. Perhaps it's best for readers to seriously consider investing in both. But you must also consider how many copies to purchase. Both these books need to be widely read and acted on. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]

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