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Caspar Henderson
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Mark Lynas

Six degrees : our future on a hotter planet

Global Warming is much in the news nowadays and so it should be - most of the other problems we have pale into insignificance compared to what global warming might bring. InSix degrees : our future on a hotter planet Mark Lynas tells the reader just how bad it might get.

The book is divided into chapters from 1° to 6°, each describing what is likely to happen with that degree of warming. 1 ° means that many mountain glaciers will shrink, leading to water shortages around the rivers they feed. Fragile ecosystems are also likely to be hit badly. 2° will mean that the heatwaves of 2003 will come to be thought of as normal, and that much of the arctic ice will disappear. I'll skip ahead here and point out that even if we go ahead with most of the plans to limit global warming, we're still likely to have a temperature rise of 1-2 degrees. And it gets worse. 3° means the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, and more devastating storms. 4° leads to the huge sea level rise we've seen in the movies. 5° - well if it gets that bad then it's not likely to stop there. Positive feedback mechanisms such as the release of methane hydrates will mean the temperature will go on increasing. This brings us to 6°, which may well lead to a mass extinction - worse than that at the end of the Permian, since it will happen so much quicker.

The book ends with a look at which of these temperatures it is likely to be, and emphasises that business as usual is simply not an option and that the naysayers are just clutching at straws. Lynas argues however, that we are not powerless to tackle the problem. One of the things I liked about this book was the way that Lynas packed in a great amount of detail, which can't just be dismissed with a few platitudes, but did so in a way that kept the readers interest. Hence I feel that this is likely to be an important book in spreading the message of what we are likely to be in for.

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Hardcover 336 pages  
ISBN: 142620213X
Salesrank: 21323
Weight:1.35 lbs
Published: 2008 National Geographic
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Paperback 288 pages  
ISBN: 0007209053
Salesrank: 4626
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Published: 2008 HarperPerennial
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Product Description
Possibly the most graphic treatment of global warming that has yet been published, Six Degrees is what readers of Al Gore's best-selling An Inconvenient Truth or Ross Gelbspan's Boiling Point will turn to next. Written by the acclaimed author of High Tide, this highly relevant and compelling book uses accessible journalistic prose to distill what environmental scientists portend about the consequences of human pollution for the next hundred years.

In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a landmark report projecting average global surface temperatures to rise between 1.4 degrees and 5.8 degrees Celsius (roughly 2 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of this century. Based on this forecast, author Mark Lynas outlines what to expect from a warming world, degree by degree. At 1 degree Celsius, most coral reefs and many mountain glaciers will be lost. A 3-degree rise would spell the collapse of the Amazon rainforest, disappearance of Greenland's ice sheet, and the creation of deserts across the Midwestern United States and southern Africa. A 6-degree increase would eliminate most life on Earth, including much of humanity.

Based on authoritative scientific articles, the latest computer models, and information about past warm events in Earth history, Six Degrees promises to be an eye-opening warning that humanity will ignore at its peril.
 
A gripping and scary look into our climatic future *****
This book is an excellent summary of current knowledge of global warming. The future looks frightening. I've decided to do my part by cutting back on driving and getting solar panels.
 
The Planet has been here before & Lynas is wrong *
In 1000 AD the Vikings sailed, sleeveless, to Greenland and Newfoundland. The Greenland glaciers were all but gone, and the valleys were verdant. Scotland's climate was similar to that of Southern France today. The Scots had vineyards and produced lots of wine. The rest of the world did not succumb to drought. The polar bears did not go extinct, and oceans did not rise to high as to flood London and (to come) New York. Lynas is stark raving mad, and so are those who fall for this literary tripe.

Global temperatures have been cycling, with a five degree Celsius amplitude, for 800 million years. We have been dealing with a peak of several of the cycles involved, and they are due to decline.

The foolish arrogance of those who presume that anthropogenic CO2 is somehow overwhelming those cycles will be looked upon as having as much intelligence as those who sank women in ponds to see if they are witches. Those who sank were innocent! Those who floated were sentenced to death for being witches.

Even if global warming caused a two degree warming it would take a century or more for significant changes to ocean levels to materialize. In such a period of time shoreline property values would be affected by the aging of buildings (to worthless) and the perception of young investors to live elsewhere. "Elsewhere" might mean 200 or 300 miles farther towards the poles in order to experience the same conditions they would now experience. Given the time frame anyone could adjust. Whereas the draconian measures presently advocated to solve this non-crisis would do far more harm than the crisis would at its worst.
Even "Chicken Little" is calm in the face of perceived crisis, compared to the scaremongering nonsense of Lynas, Gore, Suzuki (Canada) et al.
 
There is still time *****
In this book, the author, Mark Lynas, has taken great effort to obtain original publications and to document the effects of climate change as the Earth warms one degree Celsius at a time. It is not a pretty picture. We do not have to go all the way to six degrees to see massive disruptions occurring. With only one or two degrees, we may see extensive droughts in many regions, the dying of coral reefs, and rising ocean levels.

As dire as the predictions are, the reality may be much worse. Climate change has accelerated beyond the predictions of only one or two years ago. Instead of increasing at the rate of 2 ppm each year as stated by Lynas in this book, the CO2 in the atmosphere increased by 2.4 ppm in 2007. The concentration of methane, a greenhouse gas, which had been stable, also increased.

In this book, the prediction for an ice-free Artic Ocean in the summer is for 2020. However, there were reports at the end of 2007 that NASA climate scientists are predicting the summer of 2012 as the date for an ice-free Arctic. The ice in question is floating sea ice. Its melting will not raise the level of the world's oceans. However, an ice free Arctic Ocean will absorb more sunlight, increasing the Arctic warming trend. If the Arctic Ocean is ice free, can the collapse of the Greenland ice cap be far behind? There is enough ice on Greenland to raise the world's sea level by more than 20 feet.

We may not have to wait generations to see the effects of climate change become apparent. However, we still do have time to slow greenhouse gas emissions. It will take concerted efforts on the part of all the countries of the world to change to non-carbon emitting sources and more efficient use of energy. It is still possible to save the planet.

I also recommend the books With Speed and Violence: Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change about recent scientific investigations and their implications for global warming, and Global Warning: The Last Chance for Change, which details the politics of climate change.
 
"Six Degrees:" An Excellent Description of What's Coming *****
This book reads like a good mystery novel; a real page-turner. Lynas has condensed thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers on climate history and current climate change into a riveting depiction of what is in store for the world as global-warming gasses continue to accumulate. The format documents the changes that can be expected as the global average temperature increases one degree at a time. He makes a strong case that, unless warming is confined to 2 degrees Centigrade or less, "feedback loops" will cause irreversible "runaway" warming that likely will cause mass extinction of life on the planet. This book is a "must-read," especially for leaders of government, industry and academe.
 
six degrees *****
an easy read, not technical, but arguably the most scary book you will ever read - the author summarizes the research papers on global warming that never made it to the popular news media

never mind saving the cute fuzzy animals, we are on course to sterilize the entire planet, including most human life - sort of like playing Russian roulette with a loaded luger

most interesting are the projections for next 5 to 10 years - the 100 year highs and lows, droughts and storms will start comming every few years as the atmosphere and oceans destabilize as they move to a new equilibrium

 
Lynas paints a possible apocalyptic future for us all ****
Mark Lynas had spent months in libraries reading and taking notes about future global weather changes from scientific journals and from his studies he has put together this book.
The book explains to the reader what would happen to the planet if it were to get six degrees hotter over the next 100 years.
Each chapter explains what would happen to world as it got 1 degree hotter.
Chapter 1 explains what would happen if the planet got one degree hotter and chapter 6 finishes by explaining what would happen if the planet got six degrees hotter.
This book is not easy to digest as it paints a very apocalyptic future for us humans should climate change not be halted.
In the final chapter Mark explains how we can prevent this scenario ever happening.
A very different book from Al Gore's inconvient truth in a sense that this book looks at what could happen rather than what is happening now.
If the subject global warming interests you than this book is well worth a read and will give you a great insight in future life on earth if we fail to act now.
 
'business as usual' .... I don't think so. *****
no politition could read this book and stay in office with 'business as usual' without being in total denial. not sensational in it's presentation, but leaves little to the imagination. Surely we've had it, haven't we? Don't leave too much money to your children - it will be of little use.
 
BAFFLED *
One thing baffles me about this book by an evangelical warmista - and I wish Lynas would answer. He has not addressed one simple proven fact... that in the last 10 years the globe has been cooling quite markedly at a time when carbon emissions have never been higher. How does he square this with his alarmist views ? The fact is that a very great many reputable scientists the world over question whether anything we do has any effect on our climate - though clearly we pollute our environment and destroy the habitat for other creatures; but that is a different issue. The globe has warmed and cooled, warmed and cooled, for many billions of years and our climate has changed and will continue to change regardless of these tiny specks called humans.
Global warming was until around 2,000, since when the globe has been cooling. Will it warm up again ? Who knows ? There are only computer projections and we know those cannot not even get the long range weather forecast right for the British Isles
 
A worthwhile read - shame the only picture is the naff cover design. ****
In some ways this is just another popular book about climate change, which perhaps is why the publishers opted for the (IMO unnecessary) "look-at-me" cover. But, then, only the inept judge books by their covers.

Lynas approaches climate change by describing things that may happen when average global temperatures rise by 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 degrees respectively and provides successive chapters for these scenarios. This presentation sequence is, IMO, very effective.

Writing for the non-specialist audience, he takes a broad-brush approach choosing, rightly IMO, not to burden the reader with details but giving a 50-page Notes section at the end listing references to details referred to in the text. On the downside, there are no diagrams - not even line graphics. For me this detracted from the presentation, which I found otherwise very engaging.

So much, then, for how he says things. I would, however, have some criticisms of what he says. First of all, though he claims that anthropogenic carbon emissions are causing global warming, whether they are it's sole cause is a matter open to legitimate debate. (No - I'm not a warming-skeptic, just a little obsessional about the science.) Given the reaction from scientifically illiterate skeptics, I do worry that people who write about global warming, particularly in the popular science genre, simply don't give a balanced view.

There is substantial scientific evidence that global temperature variations and CO2 levels have varied widely in the pre-human past. It is possible that all human CO2 emissions are doing are adding a little more feedback to what is otherwise a natural process. This is not an argument for not moderating such emissions, but it should alert us to be very careful about deciding what we do about climate change. It may be that even substantial emission reductions can change outcomes only to a limited extent. In that case carbon sequestration and measures to raise Earth's albedo might be better investments than the current green orthodoxy.

Still, I hope this goes to a second edition and that if it does, they'll:

(a) drop the naff cover design and put some pictures and diagrams - and above all MAPS - inside,

and

(b)be more balanced about the causes of global warming.

I'd recommend this book as an introduction to climate change for any lay reader who hasn't yet read anything about it (if that's possible). On the other hand I'd encourage anyone who does read it to look at other material on offer. Climate change is a complex subject and, with the best will in the world, nobody can do it justice in the popular science genre.
 
Required to Help Understand Climate Change ****
Here we are confused and scared about what is to happen next. Each side picks what they believe to be key evidence which points to what will happen in the future. But here's the rub we don't know! Historical evidence is useful showing us what could happen within the natural cycle. But are we within a natural cycle? Has the planet ever had a species which over hundreds of years has released stored carbon and methane (as well as other "thermally opaque" gases) into the atmosphere over such a relatively short time?

What do we do?

First, we need to know what could happen then allocate sufficient resources to make sure we are secure against the unacceptable. This book sets these possible levels of that "unacceptable" change.

It allows us to understand that doing nothing is actually an action; doing nothing means "Business as Usual" which means the continued emissions of Giga Tonnes of global warming gases into the atmosphere.

Anyone for Russian roulette?
 
Six Degrees of warming is highly speculative and I'm very thankful for that. *
I did not take this all the way to the end because the later arguments stand on the shoulders of the earlier bits. The earlier bits are crumbly, and my blood pressure, normally normal, was rising faster than the Author's imagination. I am keeping this book away from my library to prevent my library getting a fever.
P. 17
In the United States, fluid inclusion data from ice core are commonly used, but I suspect the data are very unreliable. Researchers at UofT never used secondary inclusions (bubbles on healed fractures) for sphalerite geothermometry, and never even bothered with calcite fluid inclusions, assuming them worthless because of the weakness of calcite. Strictly speaking, determining whether an inclusion is primary is not possible. It is possible, however, to determine whether an inclusion is secondary, but not the other way around. Many secondary inclusions are unrecognised until set in context where they cannot fit thermodynamically and then they are discarded.
Ice is an open system simply because it expands as it freezes. Think of it this way. Ice will vacuum ambient air into its structure as it crystallizes. The trapped gasses then reorganise into bubbles. Moreover, the transition from firn to ice can take hundreds to thousands of years on any particular glacier. In the top transparent to translucent tens of metres, the firn freezes and thaws an unknowable number of times before conditions obtain to freeze it for the long term as crystalline ice.
The isotopes used for temperature determinations are heavy isotopes of oxygen and carbon; in a closed system, they proxy for temperature. In an open system, the light isotopes differentially leave the system and the heavies concentrate. In the ice core scientific papers I have from Lonnie T., the presentations include a hockey stick that has a handle which projects deep down into the ice with little variation. The bent blade of the stick corresponds to the upper end of the core where the open system prevails progressively more open toward the surface. The scientist measures the ambient temperature and calibrates it to isotope ratios of the newest ice. The ratios down the hole are then heavier and represent by proxy, lower temperatures. Hence, a global temperature curve of warming is produced that corresponds abruptly with the Industrial Revolution.
This is not the temperature record. The isotopic record is an artefact of the age of burial, degassing of the lighter isotopes, and progressive closing of the system. Glaciologists like Thompson have made a career of ice fluid inclusions, but they miss out the warm period of the Roman Empire, Medieval Warm period when Greenland was farmland and the Little Ice Age when the Alps were impassable. I am certain that the corrupt data issue is caused by publish or perish overspecialization, but the only way to ignore those episodes of geological climatic history is to cherry pick the background reading. Like the urban heating curves used by the Goddard Space Flight Institute, this database is corrupt and the student should go back to the lab in the basement or fail his Masters. Unfortunately, Lonny's bandwagon keeps on rolling. Does he know it? Only a cynic would say, "Of course he does".
P 21.
Interestingly enough, The Sand Mountains of the Rhub al Khali were formed by Westerlies blowing 100 kms an hour for 100s of years at a time. They are the Seif dunes of the Sahara (Google Earth). Seif is Arabic for sword, the long curved one. Seif dunes formed during the Pleistocene while climatic zones were compressed by an ice cap covering North America and the Alps. The Neanderthals lived in caves for good reason.
P. 29
Global warming as normal climates change is not the same meaning as anthropogenic global warming (AGW) caused by CO2. This assumption comes up as the author's circular argument all through the book.
P. 82
Wrong, not 70,000 - 100,000 years ago. I asked Environment Canada and got the answer. Polar Bears are at least 1,000,000 years old. They can interbreed with brown bears and produce fertile offspring (however, polar bears are extremely xenophobic so that intermarriage is beneath their station). Last year someone shot a dead Grizzly/Polar cross and used its picture as evidence of stress from global warming. The white bear has great camouflage for ice and the brown race does not. However, they contain the genes to go either way, and the genes have survived many ice ages and interglacial episodes with races swinging from white to brown and back depending on Darwin's whim.
P. 87
Bangladesh has added 10s of thousands of hectares of land area since the book Six Degrees of Warming: Our Future on a Hotter Planet was published. Sea level is the base level. As sea level rises (4-6 mm a year), the rivers and deltas dump their sediment and build barrier islands as a direct causal succession or consequence. This is part of progradation, the process that has formed the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains and barriers. Following the Pleistocene glaciations coral atolls rose and siliciclastic barriers grew. Subtle sea level rise just leads to nice places to have holidays. Darwin drew some clear diagrams if the formation of an atoll from a subsiding coral island.
To rise 120 metres since the last glaciations, sea level needs to rise 6 mm a year on average (125m / 20,000 years). The current numbers (UN IPCC 2-3 mm/ year) indicate the rise is slowing rather than increasing. An additional complication lies in isostatic rebound. From New York City northward including the Canadian Shield over to Hudson Bay, the land is rising faster than sea level.
P. 101 and 103
Climate Change is not the same as Anthropogenic Global Warming. AGW is (to me) the temperatures posted by Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) which includes much corrupt data from urbanized weather stations across the United States. Moreover, the GISS database no longer has updates from the Siberian stations closed for economic reasons after the collapse of the USSR. The media do not notice this bias.
P. 114
Botswana is a desert, Australia is a desert, and the Gobi and Sahara are deserts because of their positions respecting topography or global wind systems.
P. 115
CO2 has exceeded 400 pm several times in the past 130 years. It was 400 ppm as recently as 1942. Measurements of atmospheric CO2 for the past 130 years by Ernst-George Beck [Google him] show the UN IPCC has cooked the books. The measurements accumulated from the chemical literature by Beck include analyses by five Nobel Prize winning chemists. Mauna Loa is a very short database on a volcano that issues CO2. The main reason, however, could be the demise of pineapple farming and replacement with condominiums. I have never seen the promoters use a curve from anywhere else. (?)
P. 119
BAS Principal Investigator Dr Alan Haywood said,
`There are two schools of thought about past warm intervals. Many scientists suggest that they were caused by ocean currents (like the Gulf Stream) moving greater amounts of warm water from the tropics to the Polar Regions. Others speculate that increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere initiated warming all over the planet. We used the latest supercomputing technology combined with chemical analysis of seabed sediments to make a sophisticated reconstruction of past sea temperatures. If the warming was caused by ocean currents, we would expect to see cooling at the tropics and warming at the poles. Conversely, if CO2 was the cause then we would expect both the tropics and the poles to warm. The sea temperature pattern we found points the finger squarely at CO2 rather than the ocean currents. This is a real breakthrough for those of us investigating past climate - we've made a major contribution to a long standing argument and our findings are critical to understanding how climate may respond to emissions of greenhouse gases in the future'[THAT'S FOR YOUR PEERS TO DECIDE].
However, if the warming were due to another cause, say the solar hypothesis, which briefly stated is "It's the sun, STUPID", the warming causes retrograde solubility to kick in thus increasing atmospheric CO2. Do not warm your ginger ale and shake it.
P. 120
Cause and effect. Retrograde solubility (Not the only thing I ever learned from grad school). The reason Al Gore got so much attention from real scientists was this piece. CO2 trailed warming on his presentation. CO2 dissolves in cold water and evolves out of warm water. It is an effect of global warming rather than a cause. Do not warm your beer; it goes flat. I would buy the book to use as an example of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing.
 
Six steps to some surprises *****
It's hard to understand how there could be any climate change "sceptics" remaining. Perhaps they have failed to comprehend the long view of what the circumstances are. What does an increase in global temperatures really mean? Mark Lynas has culled the massive number of reports on the topic and here woven them into a comprehensive picture of likely futures for this planet. In this effective work, he lines out what the changes in our biosphere are likely to be over the next decades. It's a chilling account and one that should be in the hands of every industrialist, policy-maker and tax-paying consumer.

Using the data supplied by his extensive resources, Lynas depicts global and regional changes in environment due to increase over time. His temperature range selection is driven by the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC's reports indicate a six degree Celsius increase over the next century. Integrating the scientific research on the biosphere, IPCC is able to review existing and past conditions and those likely to ensue in the future. Lynas synthesizes the reports to present a picture of conditions likely with each degree of heat will lead to over time. The first degree is typified by examples of drought. The Great Plains of the US trans-Mississippi is already showing signs of that dry-out. The author explains that drought in one place may be off-set by rainstorms elsewhere. Heat over land desiccates, but heat over water increases evaporation leading to greater precipitation. Even with but a single step up in temperature, the rains may be intense in some locales. This seems to be occurring already, with ravaging storms displacing many refugees. Katrina is almost certainly an example of the new environment.

As he progresses through the impact of biosphere heating, he reminds the reader that the social costs will only grow higher. If the North Atlantic Current is flooded by fresh water runoff from North America and Greenland, northern Europe may be facing a cold snap. The cooling will be brief, however, as dry conditions will move into Europe from Africa. The moving warm air will be accompanied by the Mediterranean population fleeing dried-out farms and depleted fisheries. While there remains doubt about how long it might take to shut down the Gulf Stream, the drought conditions are inevitable if the rate of heating continues unabated. Millions of people will be displaced, but whether they will find refuge is problematic. As Lynas points out, the forces and numbers involved here are so staggering that it's difficult for all of us to conceive of them in our minds. Katrina emptied an entire city, but those people were absorbed into other areas. The idea of whole nations on the move is beyond imagining. Yet that is the very prospect we, and our children will be facing.

The point of this book is that during the ensuing decades, we are all, every culture, religion, social group and government, facing a planetary disruption of unpredictable severity. That's a difficult concept to grasp, but the challenge is there and clearly present. Attempts to deny it may give us superficial comfort, but, as Lynas points out, similar crises have occurred in the past. Our civilisations weren't there to experience them and we have few precedents to draw on for planning corrective action. He describes those ancient events with clarity and concern, but leaves to the reader how the conditions might affect their daily lives. It's not an easy task, but obviously must be undertaken.

If there's a serious flaw in this book - and there isn't - the major one is the failure to assess cascade effects through time. Explaining conditions by steps of temperature is a useful and needed exercise. What's lacking is some effort to deal with the population displacement and the results of that movement. While it would necessarily be in the realm of speculation, the questions should have been raised, or where they are noted, been offered with greater clarity. Lynas' own use of language, however, is severe enough. Tackling the social questions more thoroughly might exhaust his lexicon. The human issue is, to us, the big one, but the next step in his analysis might also have prompted some actions we might consider. Several recent books, most notably George Monbiot's "Heat" address this question squarely. Perhaps it's best for readers to seriously consider investing in both. But you must also consider how many copies to purchase. Both these books need to be widely read and acted on. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]

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