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guardian.co.uk
Caspar Henderson
Times Online
Stuart Barlow
Pete Ashley
Josie Appleton

Mark Lynas

Six degrees : our future on a hotter planet

Global Warming is much in the news nowadays and so it should be - most of the other problems we have pale into insignificance compared to what global warming might bring. InSix degrees : our future on a hotter planet Mark Lynas tells the reader just how bad it might get.

The book is divided into chapters from 1° to 6°, each describing what is likely to happen with that degree of warming. 1 ° means that many mountain glaciers will shrink, leading to water shortages around the rivers they feed. Fragile ecosystems are also likely to be hit badly. 2° will mean that the heatwaves of 2003 will come to be thought of as normal, and that much of the arctic ice will disappear. I'll skip ahead here and point out that even if we go ahead with most of the plans to limit global warming, we're still likely to have a temperature rise of 1-2 degrees. And it gets worse. 3° means the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, and more devastating storms. 4° leads to the huge sea level rise we've seen in the movies. 5° - well if it gets that bad then it's not likely to stop there. Positive feedback mechanisms such as the release of methane hydrates will mean the temperature will go on increasing. This brings us to 6°, which may well lead to a mass extinction - worse than that at the end of the Permian, since it will happen so much quicker.

The book ends with a look at which of these temperatures it is likely to be, and emphasises that business as usual is simply not an option and that the naysayers are just clutching at straws. Lynas argues however, that we are not powerless to tackle the problem. One of the things I liked about this book was the way that Lynas packed in a great amount of detail, which can't just be dismissed with a few platitudes, but did so in a way that kept the readers interest. Hence I feel that this is likely to be an important book in spreading the message of what we are likely to be in for.

Amazon.com info
Hardcover 336 pages  
ISBN: 142620213X
Salesrank: 163808
Weight:1.35 lbs
Published: 2008 National Geographic
Amazon price $17.16
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Amazon.co.uk info
Paperback 288 pages  
ISBN: 0007209053
Salesrank: 20600
Weight:0.53 lbs
Published: 2008 Harper Perennial
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Product Description
Possibly the most graphic treatment of global warming that has yet been published, Six Degrees is what readers of Al Gore's best-selling An Inconvenient Truth or Ross Gelbspan's Boiling Point will turn to next. Written by the acclaimed author of High Tide, this highly relevant and compelling book uses accessible journalistic prose to distill what environmental scientists portend about the consequences of human pollution for the next hundred years.

In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a landmark report projecting average global surface temperatures to rise between 1.4 degrees and 5.8 degrees Celsius (roughly 2 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of this century. Based on this forecast, author Mark Lynas outlines what to expect from a warming world, degree by degree. At 1 degree Celsius, most coral reefs and many mountain glaciers will be lost. A 3-degree rise would spell the collapse of the Amazon rainforest, disappearance of Greenland's ice sheet, and the creation of deserts across the Midwestern United States and southern Africa. A 6-degree increase would eliminate most life on Earth, including much of humanity.

Based on authoritative scientific articles, the latest computer models, and information about past warm events in Earth history, Six Degrees promises to be an eye-opening warning that humanity will ignore at its peril.
 
Shattering! *****
I have read and studied a great deal about the climate crisis but this book left me reeling. Its structure, taking us step by step into a hotter planet, is hard to put down but is also dreadfully depressing. If Mr. Lynas is correct, and all he's doing here is brilliantly assembling the latest scientific research on the subject, then the 21st century may be the last for humanity, and for most other life forms as well. Try as I might, I find it hard to refute this terrifying conclusion. Scientists the world over are ringing alarm bells and screaming to be heard above the din. This book goes a long way towards clearly articulating the prevailing view among climate scientists that this issue needs to be priority number one for the entire planet if we are to have any hope of survival. Sadly, it's just one book and is unlikely to spark the kind of revolutionary thinking that will be necessary to tackle the problem.
One rather annoying thing about the end of the book is its dismissal of nuclear power as a technological solution. If the situation is as dire as Mr. Lyans clearly believes, why not throw everything at it, including the most powerful technology known to man? Without a massive scaling up of nuclear power, along with solar, wind, conservation and the rest, I can't see how we have any hope of averting a disaster. Yet Mr. Lyans seems willing to set it aside with very little thought to the matter. It is telling that since this book was published he has now become an active and vocal proponent of nuclear power. It's just a great shame this change of heart was not part of his book.
Like so many books (and movies) about the climate crisis it's long on instilling fear but offers next to nothing in terms of a solution. The result for most readers, I fear, will be to try to put this nightmarish vision of a looming catastrophe out of their minds rather than motivating them to become engaged in concrete solutions. Not for the faint of heart (I won't let my wife read it and won't speak about its conclusions to my kids). Yes, it's that scary!
 
Best Climate Change Impact Book Out There! *****
This book shows degree by degree the impacts of climate change. Lynas has researched hundreds upon hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific articles to show the reader how each degree of future warming will impact droughts, floods, human migration, sea level rise, ice melt, ecosystem changes/extinctions on land and in the sea, human security issues, etc. Given that 3-4 oC warming is likely before the year 2100, read those chapters first and you will quickly see just how catastrophic the road humans are traveling down really is. This book is not for the faint of heart and will be a huge wake-up call to those that think waiting to take action is a viable option.
 
Lynas has done his homework *****
The 2007 IPCC AR4 report predicts a potential increase in global mean temperature before 2100 of between 1.1 and 6.4 degrees C.

That's a broad range...? Why the uncertainty? What do these numbers actually mean? Surely 6 degrees is not such a big deal - we have that kind of difference every week, right?

Popular science writer Mark Lynas has done a Herculean job of sorting through all the reports, scientific papers, climate model predictions etc, and breaking down what these mean in terms of one degree C increments, in terms that everyone can understand.

The book is primarily six chapters, starting at "One Degree" and building up to a truly terrifying "Six Degrees". There is also a brief introduction, conclusion, and more than 50 pages of notes and references...

The conclusion, entitled "Choosing our Future" is particularly well done. Poignant and impassioned, yet measured, pragmatic and very cautiously optimistic... It avoids the pithy platitudes that you often find in such books.

Lynas has done his homework, and he's a good writer. If you want to understand what the science really means to you and your children then add this one to your cart.
 
Move over, dinosaurs, here come the Humans ****
4.5 stars. I really liked the approach of this book: six main chapters, each describing what might happen with each additional one-degree increase in global temperature. Yes, the book is a bit alarmist, but that's not entirely inappropriate; there is a great deal about which we should be alarmed. Is this heavy science? No. Is it a wee bit jumbled at times? Yes. Still, this is a very accessable interesting read. It seems to support my long-held suspicion that there's really nothing we can do to prevent dramatic climate change in the very near future. At best, we can mitigate it a little bit. (Depressing, I know...)

I would have really liked to have seen some maps showing projected sea-level rises, desertification, etc. That would have been a nice touch.

Recommended.
 
Oh Dear! *
Oh Dear!

Unquestionably Mark Lynas's 'Six Degrees' ranks amongst the ten worst books I have ever read.

Constructed as a supposed account of how average global temperature increases will impact the planet, and derived from information primarily provided by the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, Six Degrees reads more like a novel loaded with emotive adjectives than a book that accuratley projects the global climatic conditions of the future.

Each of the six chapters applies random accounts of 'one study' by 'such and such' suggesting that...The whole book is a random collection of random studies examining random locations across the planet.

Lynas, a journalist, has made a very poor attempt at science. He has correctly stated that climate models are limited by their own operative capacity - but he has based the whole book on climate models! He fails to acknowledge that human understanding of the climate system is limited and therefore so is our ability to predict possible impacts of climate change.

The book is loaded with contradictions, scientific flaws, and baseless arguments. Pick any page and soon enough you will find something undeniably incorrect in his prophecies, facts or data. And how he managed to write such an account using the IPCC without quoting their emissions scenarios is just absurd (although he does apply scientists research to a small table he supposedly constructed himself in the last chapter).

Like the random dribble (I have trouble beleiving it was even published)he has given us, I have chosen a few random pages for analysis:

Chapter 1: Any scientist is knowledgable of Milkanovitch cycles and varying solar output.

He quotes an article he read in Nature (well done Lynas) of the disapperance of frogs. Apparently frog disappearances are attributed to fungal bodies weakening their amphibious skin layers, not rising temperatures.

Typically pessimistic he fails to acknowledge the benefits of global warming - new industries / extensive farmlands opening / new fisheries and new oil reserves for exploitation.

He raves on about CO2 emitting nations being the causative factor forcing inhabitants of low island states to migrate. Perhaps identifying how to account for emissions (ie per capita / historic / volume / producer or end user) might be a little constructive.

Chapter 2:

Chapter 2 is an emotive rant about possible climatic scenrios - rain / storms / drought / yet he provides no reference to government bodies today addressing possible adaptation, mitigation or geo-engineering solutions.

He also describes in detail about the future impacts in Lima, Peru (probably in response to the holiday he took there as a student), yet he fails to acknowledge the current and politically infectious drought in La Paz, Bolivia, which is directly the result of climate change, and only next door?

Chapter 3: Oh Dear, it just gets worse!

Will Pakistan become a failed state? A failed state is defined as a nation that cannot yield economic decline whilst adopting the policies that initially caused the economic collapse.

Hmmm, what does that make Pakistan? oh! a failed state - Oh dear!

And I do love, quote, "The resentment felt by Muslims towards Westerners will be tame by comparison." (compared to that felt by climate migrants). Most people living in modern day Islam love Western lifestyles.

Chapter 4: Things really start warming up!

A few things any reader should know...China still has 400 million peasants ( a peasant is a peron who lives on less than US$2 per day).

The Younger Dryas event saw average global temperatures drop 11 degrees C in ten years - so what we are experiencing today is not the fastest rate of global climate change experienced in history!

Peak oil will not happen!!! Lynas states himself that more than one quarter of todays known reserves are thought to exist under the artic circle, and tapping is (thankfully) being inaugurated there today.

Chapter 5: The book just gets funnier - if the author had bothered to do his homework instead of visiting the local library and writing summarized accounts of journal articles - he might already know that desertification is already happening in the Amazon / that one third of the landmass of China is already desert / and has he ever heard of the Nubian aquifer under Northern Africa???

Furthermore, pinpointing climate change as the sole driver of political unrest in Sudan is funny! What about the Christian south and the Muslim north Lynas?

Food riots may be the result of climate change - but they never get a mention. Hmmmmm.

Chapter 6: Humour yourself!!!!

Lynas is not qualified to write on such a topic. Quoting talented researchers and authors including Jared Diamond and James Lovelock is an insult to such reverred thinkers. (I'm not convinced Lynas understands Lovelock's Gaia theory).

Definitely not worth the paper it is printed on. The hardcover of Mark Lynas's Six Degrees comes with an inscription on the front, "Please Recycle This Book." My advice is recycle it before you start to read it. My copy went straight to the bin.

Peter Walker

 
Six Degrees *****
Everybody should read this book, as it shows what has happened and why, what is happening now, and what WILL happen IF we dont do something about the problem now, all Americans should read it, as most are still living in the dark ages over there, most likely because of all the fossil fueled smog that have to endure
 
The future if we continue to act stupidly ****
An interesting easy to read book. I'm relatively well informed with regards to climate change and issues of sustainability so nothing in this book should really come as a surprise. Nevertheless its discomforting to have it laid out so clearly. This book is worth reading and passing to people who need nudging and their eyes open.
 
Fiction *
Like much of the IPPC reports, this book draws heavily on the work of political advocacy groups. Does it matter if the science is cherry picked so long as it suits your personal interests or ideologies? Before jumping to conclusions about how bad it will be in the future, take some time to learn how uncertain our knowledge of the recent temperature is - and remember that we tend to have short memories.
 
Very well done. *****
The 2007 IPCC AR4 report predicts a potential increase in global mean temperature before 2100 of between 1.1 and 6.4 degrees C.

That's a broad range...? Why the uncertainty? What do these numbers actually mean? Surely 6 degrees is not such a big deal - we have that kind of difference every week, right?

Popular science writer Mark Lynas has done a Herculean job of sorting through all the reports, scientific papers, climate model predictions etc, and breaking down what these mean in terms of one degree C increments, in terms that everyone can understand.

The book is primarily six chapters, starting at "One Degree" and building up to a truly terrifying "Six Degrees". There is also a brief introduction, conclusion, and more than 50 pages of notes and references...

The conclusion, entitled "Choosing our Future" is particularly well done. Poignant and impassioned, yet measured, pragmatic and very cautiously optimistic... It avoids the pithy platitudes that you often find in such books.

Lynas has done his homework, and he's a good writer. If you want to understand what the science really means to you and your children then add this one to your cart.
 
Six Degrees--Mark Lynas *
As a confirmed anti climate change,man made global warming skeptic I found this book unreadable, and more like a science fiction novel, I read about a quarter and had to put it down, very doubtful if I shall return to it. Really suprised that it received ''Winner--Prizes for Science Books 08'' from the Royal Institution. A scaremongering book of the first order.
 
Six Degrees of warming is highly speculative and I'm very thankful for that. *
I did not take this all the way to the end because the later arguments stand on the shoulders of the earlier bits. The earlier bits are crumbly, and my blood pressure, normally normal, was rising faster than the Author's imagination. I am keeping this book away from my library to prevent my library getting a fever.
P. 17
In the United States, fluid inclusion data from ice core are commonly used, but I suspect the data are very unreliable. Researchers at UofT never used secondary inclusions (bubbles on healed fractures) for sphalerite geothermometry, and never even bothered with calcite fluid inclusions, assuming them worthless because of the weakness of calcite. Strictly speaking, determining whether an inclusion is primary is not possible. It is possible, however, to determine whether an inclusion is secondary, but not the other way around. Many secondary inclusions are unrecognised until set in context where they cannot fit thermodynamically and then they are discarded.
Ice is an open system simply because it expands as it freezes. Think of it this way. Ice will vacuum ambient air into its structure as it crystallizes. The trapped gasses then reorganise into bubbles. Moreover, the transition from firn to ice can take hundreds to thousands of years on any particular glacier. In the top transparent to translucent tens of metres, the firn freezes and thaws an unknowable number of times before conditions obtain to freeze it for the long term as crystalline ice.
The isotopes used for temperature determinations are heavy isotopes of oxygen and carbon; in a closed system, they proxy for temperature. In an open system, the light isotopes differentially leave the system and the heavies concentrate. In the ice core scientific papers I have from Lonnie T., the presentations include a hockey stick that has a handle which projects deep down into the ice with little variation. The bent blade of the stick corresponds to the upper end of the core where the open system prevails progressively more open toward the surface. The scientist measures the ambient temperature and calibrates it to isotope ratios of the newest ice. The ratios down the hole are then heavier and represent by proxy, lower temperatures. Hence, a global temperature curve of warming is produced that corresponds abruptly with the Industrial Revolution.
This is not the temperature record. The isotopic record is an artefact of the age of burial, degassing of the lighter isotopes, and progressive closing of the system. Glaciologists like Thompson have made a career of ice fluid inclusions, but they miss out the warm period of the Roman Empire, Medieval Warm period when Greenland was farmland and the Little Ice Age when the Alps were impassable. I am certain that the corrupt data issue is caused by publish or perish overspecialization, but the only way to ignore those episodes of geological climatic history is to cherry pick the background reading. Like the urban heating curves used by the Goddard Space Flight Institute, this database is corrupt and the student should go back to the lab in the basement or fail his Masters. Unfortunately, Lonny's bandwagon keeps on rolling. Does he know it? Only a cynic would say, "Of course he does".
P 21.
Interestingly enough, The Sand Mountains of the Rhub al Khali were formed by Westerlies blowing 100 kms an hour for 100s of years at a time. They are the Seif dunes of the Sahara (Google Earth). Seif is Arabic for sword, the long curved one. Seif dunes formed during the Pleistocene while climatic zones were compressed by an ice cap covering North America and the Alps. The Neanderthals lived in caves for good reason.
P. 29
Global warming as normal climates change is not the same meaning as anthropogenic global warming (AGW) caused by CO2. This assumption comes up as the author's circular argument all through the book.
P. 82
Wrong, not 70,000 - 100,000 years ago. I asked Environment Canada and got the answer. Polar Bears are at least 1,000,000 years old. They can interbreed with brown bears and produce fertile offspring (however, polar bears are extremely xenophobic so that intermarriage is beneath their station). Last year someone shot a dead Grizzly/Polar cross and used its picture as evidence of stress from global warming. The white bear has great camouflage for ice and the brown race does not. However, they contain the genes to go either way, and the genes have survived many ice ages and interglacial episodes with races swinging from white to brown and back depending on Darwin's whim.
P. 87
Bangladesh has added 10s of thousands of hectares of land area since the book Six Degrees of Warming: Our Future on a Hotter Planet was published. Sea level is the base level. As sea level rises (4-6 mm a year), the rivers and deltas dump their sediment and build barrier islands as a direct causal succession or consequence. This is part of progradation, the process that has formed the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains and barriers. Following the Pleistocene glaciations coral atolls rose and siliciclastic barriers grew. Subtle sea level rise just leads to nice places to have holidays. Darwin drew some clear diagrams if the formation of an atoll from a subsiding coral island.
To rise 120 metres since the last glaciations, sea level needs to rise 6 mm a year on average (125m / 20,000 years). The current numbers (UN IPCC 2-3 mm/ year) indicate the rise is slowing rather than increasing. An additional complication lies in isostatic rebound. From New York City northward including the Canadian Shield over to Hudson Bay, the land is rising faster than sea level.
P. 101 and 103
Climate Change is not the same as Anthropogenic Global Warming. AGW is (to me) the temperatures posted by Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) which includes much corrupt data from urbanized weather stations across the United States. Moreover, the GISS database no longer has updates from the Siberian stations closed for economic reasons after the collapse of the USSR. The media do not notice this bias.
P. 114
Botswana is a desert, Australia is a desert, and the Gobi and Sahara are deserts because of their positions respecting topography or global wind systems.
P. 115
CO2 has exceeded 400 pm several times in the past 130 years. It was 400 ppm as recently as 1942. Measurements of atmospheric CO2 for the past 130 years by Ernst-George Beck [Google him] show the UN IPCC has cooked the books. The measurements accumulated from the chemical literature by Beck include analyses by five Nobel Prize winning chemists. Mauna Loa is a very short database on a volcano that issues CO2. The main reason, however, could be the demise of pineapple farming and replacement with condominiums. I have never seen the promoters use a curve from anywhere else. (?)
P. 119
BAS Principal Investigator Dr Alan Haywood said,
`There are two schools of thought about past warm intervals. Many scientists suggest that they were caused by ocean currents (like the Gulf Stream) moving greater amounts of warm water from the tropics to the Polar Regions. Others speculate that increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere initiated warming all over the planet. We used the latest supercomputing technology combined with chemical analysis of seabed sediments to make a sophisticated reconstruction of past sea temperatures. If the warming was caused by ocean currents, we would expect to see cooling at the tropics and warming at the poles. Conversely, if CO2 was the cause then we would expect both the tropics and the poles to warm. The sea temperature pattern we found points the finger squarely at CO2 rather than the ocean currents. This is a real breakthrough for those of us investigating past climate - we've made a major contribution to a long standing argument and our findings are critical to understanding how climate may respond to emissions of greenhouse gases in the future'[THAT'S FOR YOUR PEERS TO DECIDE].
However, if the warming were due to another cause, say the solar hypothesis, which briefly stated is "It's the sun, STUPID", the warming causes retrograde solubility to kick in thus increasing atmospheric CO2. Do not warm your ginger ale and shake it.
P. 120
Cause and effect. Retrograde solubility (Not the only thing I ever learned from grad school). The reason Al Gore got so much attention from real scientists was this piece. CO2 trailed warming on his presentation. CO2 dissolves in cold water and evolves out of warm water. It is an effect of global warming rather than a cause. Do not warm your beer; it goes flat. I would buy the book to use as an example of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing.
 
Six steps to some surprises *****
It's hard to understand how there could be any climate change "sceptics" remaining. Perhaps they have failed to comprehend the long view of what the circumstances are. What does an increase in global temperatures really mean? Mark Lynas has culled the massive number of reports on the topic and here woven them into a comprehensive picture of likely futures for this planet. In this effective work, he lines out what the changes in our biosphere are likely to be over the next decades. It's a chilling account and one that should be in the hands of every industrialist, policy-maker and tax-paying consumer.

Using the data supplied by his extensive resources, Lynas depicts global and regional changes in environment due to increase over time. His temperature range selection is driven by the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC's reports indicate a six degree Celsius increase over the next century. Integrating the scientific research on the biosphere, IPCC is able to review existing and past conditions and those likely to ensue in the future. Lynas synthesizes the reports to present a picture of conditions likely with each degree of heat will lead to over time. The first degree is typified by examples of drought. The Great Plains of the US trans-Mississippi is already showing signs of that dry-out. The author explains that drought in one place may be off-set by rainstorms elsewhere. Heat over land desiccates, but heat over water increases evaporation leading to greater precipitation. Even with but a single step up in temperature, the rains may be intense in some locales. This seems to be occurring already, with ravaging storms displacing many refugees. Katrina is almost certainly an example of the new environment.

As he progresses through the impact of biosphere heating, he reminds the reader that the social costs will only grow higher. If the North Atlantic Current is flooded by fresh water runoff from North America and Greenland, northern Europe may be facing a cold snap. The cooling will be brief, however, as dry conditions will move into Europe from Africa. The moving warm air will be accompanied by the Mediterranean population fleeing dried-out farms and depleted fisheries. While there remains doubt about how long it might take to shut down the Gulf Stream, the drought conditions are inevitable if the rate of heating continues unabated. Millions of people will be displaced, but whether they will find refuge is problematic. As Lynas points out, the forces and numbers involved here are so staggering that it's difficult for all of us to conceive of them in our minds. Katrina emptied an entire city, but those people were absorbed into other areas. The idea of whole nations on the move is beyond imagining. Yet that is the very prospect we, and our children will be facing.

The point of this book is that during the ensuing decades, we are all, every culture, religion, social group and government, facing a planetary disruption of unpredictable severity. That's a difficult concept to grasp, but the challenge is there and clearly present. Attempts to deny it may give us superficial comfort, but, as Lynas points out, similar crises have occurred in the past. Our civilisations weren't there to experience them and we have few precedents to draw on for planning corrective action. He describes those ancient events with clarity and concern, but leaves to the reader how the conditions might affect their daily lives. It's not an easy task, but obviously must be undertaken.

If there's a serious flaw in this book - and there isn't - the major one is the failure to assess cascade effects through time. Explaining conditions by steps of temperature is a useful and needed exercise. What's lacking is some effort to deal with the population displacement and the results of that movement. While it would necessarily be in the realm of speculation, the questions should have been raised, or where they are noted, been offered with greater clarity. Lynas' own use of language, however, is severe enough. Tackling the social questions more thoroughly might exhaust his lexicon. The human issue is, to us, the big one, but the next step in his analysis might also have prompted some actions we might consider. Several recent books, most notably George Monbiot's "Heat" address this question squarely. Perhaps it's best for readers to seriously consider investing in both. But you must also consider how many copies to purchase. Both these books need to be widely read and acted on. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]

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